Accumulation
Hodly Accumulation
Hodly Accumulation helps you create a rules-based plan for purchasing supported crypto assets over time. It is designed to reduce emotional decision-making, but it does not eliminate market or execution risk.
Hodly provides two complementary plan types:
| Feature | Recurring Buy | Adaptive Accumulation |
|---|---|---|
| Amount | Same amount at each scheduled execution | Fixed or variable amount |
| Schedule | Weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly | Weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly |
| Market awareness | Does not change based on Hodly's Risk Metric | Evaluates Hodly's Risk Metric before determining whether and how much to buy |
| Risk Stop | Always eligible at the selected schedule | Skips when risk is above the selected Risk Stop |
| Scaling Curve | Not used | Controls how the purchase amount changes as risk changes |
| Plan access | Available on Free, Core, and Pro | Saving and automation require Core or Pro |
| Best suited for | Users who prefer a predictable contribution amount | Users comfortable with variable purchases and skipped executions |
How the approaches differ
Recurring Buy prioritizes consistency. It uses the same contribution amount whenever the selected schedule becomes due.
Adaptive Accumulation changes capital deployment based on the plan's Risk Stop, amount range, and Scaling Curve. It may invest less, more, or nothing during a scheduled evaluation.
Adaptive Accumulation does not predict market bottoms. It applies predetermined rules to current risk conditions.
Manual and automated execution
Saving a plan does not automatically authorize transactions.
You can execute a due purchase manually through Hodly Swap. To enable automatic execution, approve the required Base USDC spending permission and then enable Automate for the saved plan.
Funds remain in your wallet until an authorized transaction executes.
Historical research
In Hodly's July 2026 historical comparison, fixed DCA and Adaptive Accumulation used the same total capital. Adaptive changed only when and how much capital was deployed.
The test found higher Bitcoin accumulation for Adaptive across three completed historical windows, but three cycles are a small sample. The simulation excluded fees, spread, slippage, taxes, custody costs, and execution failures. Historical results do not guarantee future performance.
Important considerations
- Adaptive plans may execute fewer transactions than their selected schedule suggests.
- Variable plans may require more USDC during lower-risk periods than the plan's average amount.
- Skipped purchases can leave capital undeployed.
- Both approaches remain exposed to asset-price losses.
- Backtests are simulations and cannot reproduce every live execution condition.
Accumulation
Recurring Buy
What is Recurring Buy?
Recurring Buy is Hodly's fixed-amount accumulation plan. It makes the same purchase amount eligible on a weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly schedule.
Recurring Buy does not adjust the purchase amount using Hodly's Risk Metric.
Why use it?
- Creates a consistent purchasing schedule
- Removes the need to choose a new amount for every purchase
- Spreads purchases across multiple dates and market prices
- Provides predictable budget requirements
- Can be saved and automated on Free, Core, and Pro plans
Recurring Buy does not guarantee a lower average purchase price, profit, or protection from market losses.
Create a Recurring Buy plan
- Open Accumulation and select Recurring Buy.
- Choose a supported target asset.
- Select weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly frequency.
- Choose the execution day or dates.
- Enter the fixed USDC amount.
- Review and save the plan.
Execute the plan
A saved plan can be completed manually when it becomes due.
To enable automatic execution:
- Open the saved plan's Confirm Automate setup.
- Use the active Hodly wallet shown in the setup.
- Approve the required Base USDC spending permission.
- Enable Automate after Hodly confirms the permission is ready.
Automatic execution depends on sufficient Base USDC, valid spending permission, supported execution conditions, and available gas sponsorship when required.
Fund the execution wallet
Recurring Buy spends Base USDC from the plan's active execution wallet.
If the wallet needs funds, use the separate Coinbase Onramp funding flow or transfer Base USDC from another wallet. Funding does not automatically execute a scheduled purchase.
Manage a plan
You can edit a saved plan, disable automation, or delete it. Disabling automation stops future automated executions but does not remove the saved plan.
Important notes
- Fixed-dollar purchases acquire more units when prices are lower and fewer when prices are higher, but this does not guarantee a favorable average price.
- Purchases are still exposed to price volatility, swap fees, market conditions, and execution failure.
- Keep enough Base USDC available before the plan becomes due.
- Automated execution requires valid permission and readiness checks.
Accumulation
Adaptive Accumulation (AA)
What is Adaptive Accumulation?
Adaptive Accumulation is a rules-based plan that evaluates Hodly's current Risk Metric at each scheduled interval.
Depending on your settings, the plan may:
- Purchase a fixed amount when current risk is within your Risk Stop
- Calculate a variable amount between your selected minimum and maximum
- Skip the scheduled purchase when current risk is above your Risk Stop
Adaptive Accumulation does not predict market bottoms. It applies the rules you selected to the current Risk Metric.
Learn more in Risk Metric Explained.
How it works
Each Adaptive plan includes:
- Target asset — the supported crypto asset you want to accumulate
- Schedule — weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly evaluation
- Amount — one fixed amount or a minimum-to-maximum range
- Risk Stop — the highest risk level at which a purchase may execute
- Scaling Curve — determines how a variable amount changes across eligible risk levels
At each scheduled interval:
- Hodly reads the current Risk Metric for the target asset.
- Hodly compares current risk with your Risk Stop.
- If risk is above the Risk Stop, the purchase is skipped.
- If risk is eligible, Hodly calculates the purchase amount.
- The purchase becomes available for manual or automated execution.
Execution is conditional. A weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly schedule determines when Hodly evaluates the plan, not how often a purchase is guaranteed to occur.
Create an Adaptive plan
- Open Accumulation and select Adaptive Accumulation.
- Choose a supported target asset.
- Select weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly frequency.
- Choose the evaluation day or dates.
- Select a fixed amount or minimum-to-maximum range.
- Choose a Risk Stop.
- If using an amount range, choose a Scaling Curve.
- Review the historical simulation.
- Save the plan.
Saving and running an Adaptive plan requires Core or Pro.
Automation
Adaptive Accumulation supports automatic execution after the plan is saved and its wallet setup is complete.
To enable automation:
- Open the plan's Confirm Automate setup.
- Confirm the active execution wallet.
- Approve the required Base USDC spending permission.
- Enable Automate after Hodly confirms the permission is ready.
Once enabled, Hodly evaluates the plan when it becomes due and can execute an eligible purchase without a separate wallet confirmation for every interval.
Automation requires:
- An active Core or Pro subscription
- Sufficient Base USDC
- A valid Base execution wallet
- Valid spending permission
- A supported execution route
- Available gas sponsorship when required
If a readiness check fails, the purchase may be skipped. Hodly records the automation state and the latest skip reason.
You can disable automation without deleting the saved plan.
Scaling Curve
The Scaling Curve controls how a variable purchase amount moves between your minimum and maximum as risk changes.
Lower-risk conditions produce larger purchases. As risk approaches the Risk Stop, the calculated purchase moves closer to the minimum.
Preset curves
- Conservative — changes the amount more gradually across eligible risk levels
- Balanced — applies a moderate curve between minimum and maximum
- Aggressive — concentrates more of the increase in lower-risk conditions
Core users can choose the three preset curves. Pro users can also customize the curve within the supported range.
The Scaling Curve does not apply when Invest fixed amount is enabled.
Risk Stop
Risk Stop defines the highest Risk Metric at which the plan may purchase.
For example, a Risk Stop of 70 means:
- Risk 70 or below — eligible for execution
- Risk above 70 — purchase is skipped
A lower Risk Stop generally produces fewer eligible execution periods. A higher Risk Stop allows the plan to remain eligible across more market conditions.
Review the historical Risk Band Distribution to understand how often the asset has occupied different risk ranges.
Historical distribution does not predict how often future purchases will execute.
Manual execution
When automation is disabled, a due purchase remains manual. Open the plan from Portfolio, review the Hodly Swap quote, and confirm the transaction in your wallet.
Important notes
- Adaptive Accumulation can execute less frequently than its selected schedule.
- Variable purchase amounts require enough Base USDC to cover the calculated amount.
- Strict Risk Stops may result in extended periods without a purchase.
- Scaling settings affect capital deployment but do not guarantee improved returns.
- Risk data, quotes, network conditions, and wallet readiness can affect execution.
Accumulation
Backtesting & Simulation
Hodly backtesting applies your selected plan settings to historical price and Risk Metric data.
It is designed to help you understand how the rules would have behaved during the selected historical period. It does not predict future results.
What the backtest displays
Depending on the selected plan and available data, the result may include:
- Simulated portfolio value
- Accumulated asset amount
- Simulated profit or loss
- Total amount invested
- Average annual return
- Average purchase price
- Historical purchase points
- Portfolio development across the selected timeframe
You can change the historical start year or timeframe and recalculate the result.
What the simulation evaluates
The simulation applies the selected:
- Target asset
- Weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly schedule
- Fixed amount or minimum-to-maximum range
- Risk Stop
- Scaling Curve
A simulated purchase occurs only when the historical date matches the selected schedule and the historical Risk Metric satisfies the plan rules.
Recurring and Adaptive results
A Recurring Buy simulation applies the same amount at each eligible scheduled date.
An Adaptive Accumulation simulation applies the historical Risk Metric, Risk Stop, amount settings, and Scaling Curve to determine whether and how much would have been purchased.
Some Hodly research and comparison experiences show Adaptive results alongside fixed DCA. A plan backtest may display only the strategy currently being configured.
Availability
Public preview backtesting currently supports BTC with preset Scaling Curves.
Additional plan simulations depend on authentication, supported historical data, plan access, and Scaling Curve entitlement. Custom Scaling Curve values require Pro.
What is not included
The simulation does not reproduce every live execution condition. Unless explicitly stated, results do not include:
- Hodly or liquidity-provider swap fees
- Base network gas
- Spread or slippage
- Taxes
- Funding delays
- Insufficient wallet balances
- Missing or revoked spending permission
- Quote or route failure
- Automation downtime
- Failed or delayed transactions
Important notes
- Historical data may be incomplete, delayed, corrected, or unavailable.
- The Hodly Risk Metric is a model and may not capture every market condition.
- Simulated purchases are not actual transactions.
- Average annual return is a historical calculation, not a forecast.
- Historical performance does not guarantee future performance.
Accumulation
Considerations & Disclosures
Practical considerations
- Execution depends on your plan settings, current Risk Metric, market conditions, available quotes, and wallet readiness.
- Strict Risk Stops may result in extended periods without a purchase.
- Variable Adaptive plans may require more Base USDC during lower-risk periods.
- Skipped purchases can leave part of your intended budget undeployed.
- Recurring and Adaptive plans should be reviewed after changes to your budget, wallet, permissions, or goals.
- Running both plan types does not guarantee continuous exposure or successful execution.
Manual and automated transactions
Manual purchases require you to review the quote and confirm the transaction in your wallet.
Automated purchases can execute without a separate wallet confirmation at every interval after you grant the required Base USDC spending permission and enable Automate.
You can disable automation without deleting the saved plan. Revoked, expired, insufficient, or mismatched permission may prevent execution or require approval again.
Model and data limitations
- Hodly's Risk Metric is a proprietary educational model.
- The Risk Metric may not reflect every market, liquidity, technical, regulatory, or macroeconomic factor.
- Risk data may be delayed, unavailable, or revised.
- A lower Risk Metric does not guarantee that an asset cannot fall further.
- A higher Risk Metric does not guarantee that an asset price will decline.
Execution risks
- A scheduled evaluation does not guarantee a completed purchase.
- Transactions may fail because of insufficient funds, invalid permission, unavailable routes, price movement, slippage limits, gas conditions, RPC failure, smart-contract behavior, or network congestion.
- Swap and network fees reduce the amount received.
- Sponsored gas may be unavailable even when a wallet is normally eligible.
- Disabling automation does not reverse completed transactions.
Backtesting limitations
- Backtests use historical data and simulated execution.
- Results may benefit from hindsight and cannot fully reproduce live liquidity or transaction conditions.
- Fees, gas, spread, slippage, taxes, funding delays, and failed executions may be excluded.
- Historical results do not guarantee future performance.
Financial disclosure
Hodly provides software, analytics, automation tools, and educational information. It does not provide individualized financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
Digital assets are volatile and may result in partial or complete loss of capital. Review every plan and transaction according to your own circumstances.